Unforex下周展望】美联储降息预期升温 黄金与非美货币迎来关键时刻

Core Viewpoint - The global focus in the foreign exchange and gold markets will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, with expectations of a rate cut influencing the dollar's performance and creating volatility opportunities for non-US currencies [1] Group 1: Key Events and Data - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is scheduled for December 9-10, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point cut, and Powell's press conference will provide important policy guidance [2] - The US October PCE data, a key inflation indicator for the Fed, has been released and will directly impact market expectations regarding Fed policy [2] - The US non-farm payroll data for October-November is due on December 5, which could alter market expectations for the Fed's future policy [3] Group 2: Market Expectations - The market consensus anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, with the probability of a cut rising to 85%-90% according to CME's FedWatch tool, up from 50% a week prior, driven by weak US economic data and dovish comments from Fed officials [3] - Despite the consensus, there remains some internal market disagreement regarding the rate cut, with Powell's hawkish comments keeping some investors cautious [3] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are expected to closely follow Fed policy dynamics, currently supported around $4100 per ounce and having touched above $4140, indicating a high-level fluctuation [3] - Key resistance for gold is at $4200, with a potential challenge to the November 13 high of $4245 if this level is breached [4] - The primary support for gold is at $4100, with a potential test of the 20-day SMA near $4045 if it breaks below [5] Group 4: Currency Market Insights - The US dollar is weakening, providing opportunities for non-US currencies, with the dollar index expected to record its worst weekly performance since July [6] - The key support level for the dollar index is at 99.00, and a break below this could open up further downside potential [7] - The euro is finding support around 1.1600, with any progress in Russia-Ukraine talks potentially strengthening the euro further [8] - The USD/JPY pair is experiencing complex movements due to Fed rate cut expectations and the Bank of Japan's easing policy [8] - The GBP/USD is influenced by the UK budget announcement, with market attention on its implications for the economy and Bank of England policy [9] - Commodity currencies like the AUD and CAD typically perform well during periods of dollar weakness and rising global risk appetite [10]