【UNFX本周展望】美联储利率决议前瞻：降息预期增强 黄金与外汇市场迎关键测试

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the forex and gold markets next week will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, with expectations of a rate cut and the dollar's performance dominating market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is scheduled for December 9-10, with a market expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, and Powell's press conference will provide further guidance on future policies [2]. - The market's expectation for a rate cut has surged to 85%-90%, significantly higher than about 50% a week ago, influenced by a series of weak U.S. economic data [2]. - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. October PCE data, non-farm payroll data for October and November, and the potential nomination of a dovish Fed chair [2]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - The short-term trend of the gold market remains influenced by Federal Reserve policies, with gold prices finding support around $4100 per ounce and briefly touching above $4140 [3]. - Key resistance for gold is at $4200, with a potential challenge to $4245 if this level is breached, while $4100 serves as the main support [8]. Group 3: Currency Market Insights - The dollar index has seen a significant decline, expected to record its worst weekly performance since July, with 99.00 as a critical support level [5]. - Non-USD currencies may experience a rebound, particularly if progress is made in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, which could provide upward momentum for the euro [5]. - The Australian and Canadian dollars typically benefit from a weaker dollar and a recovery in global risk appetite [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies and Risk Management - In the uncertain market environment next week, risk management is crucial, with suggestions to consider range trading for gold between $4100 and $4200 before the Fed decision [7]. - For forex trading, monitoring the dollar index's support at 99.00 is essential, with potential short positions on the dollar against major non-USD currencies if this level is breached [9].