未来十年成本最高降低70% 人形机器人产业站上商业应用历史拐点

Core Insights - The cost of humanoid robots is expected to decrease by 60%-70% over the next decade, driven by advancements in technology and ecosystem development [1][5] - By 2035, global annual sales of humanoid robots could reach 6 million units, with a market size exceeding $120 billion, and in optimistic scenarios, sales may surpass 10 million units, reaching $260 billion [1] - The humanoid robot industry is attracting various players, including traditional automotive manufacturers and chip suppliers, indicating a shift towards a new technological landscape [2] Industry Developments - Multiple cities in the Yangtze River Delta, including Shanghai and Nanjing, have initiated policies to support the development of the humanoid robot industry [1] - Chery Automobile and Dongfeng Motor are actively entering the humanoid robot sector, with Chery showcasing its "Mojia" robot capable of multilingual interaction and advanced navigation [2] - Dongfeng plans to launch its humanoid robots by 2026, viewing this as a strategic move to cultivate new production capabilities [2] Market Predictions - Bain & Company predicts that the humanoid robot market will undergo three development phases: early commercial exploration, industrial application, and widespread use in commercial and household settings [5] - The BOM (Bill of Materials) cost for humanoid robots is projected to drop from $40,000-$50,000 to $10,000-$20,000 by 2035, mirroring trends seen in the electric vehicle industry [5] Challenges and Considerations - Despite advancements, humanoid robots still face challenges in large-scale deployment, particularly in achieving human-level performance in perception and decision-making [4] - Key factors for successful large-scale deployment include cost reduction, technological breakthroughs, industry demand, and risk tolerance in application scenarios [4] Strategic Recommendations - Companies must define strategic goals, select competitive tracks, and establish differentiated advantages to succeed in the humanoid robot market [3] - Investors and businesses are encouraged to seize the current strategic window for planning and positioning in the humanoid robot sector [3]