别再骂AI了，内存涨价比黄金还狠，内行人揭露幕后真相

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in memory prices, particularly for 16G DDR5 RAM, is attributed to a combination of monopolistic practices in the industry and production delays rather than solely the demand driven by AI [4][12]. Price Surge Analysis - The price of 16G DDR5 memory has nearly doubled since May 2023, with some high-end models exceeding 1,000 yuan, significantly increasing the cost for consumers [2]. - The perception that AI is the primary driver of this price increase is challenged, as the underlying issue is the monopolistic control of major players in the market [4]. Market Structure - The DRAM market is dominated by three major companies: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, which collectively hold over 90% market share, leaving little room for new entrants [5]. - The high degree of product homogeneity among these companies means that there is little differentiation between brands, leading to high substitutability [5]. Production Characteristics - The production of memory chips is characterized by long lead times, with new factories taking 4 to 5 years to become operational, exacerbating supply issues [7]. - For instance, Micron's new factory in Japan will not be operational until late 2027, which does not alleviate current price pressures [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current price surge is a result of previous production cuts combined with a sudden spike in AI-related demand [12]. - The production cycle in the storage chip industry is lengthy, leading to mismatches between supply and demand, similar to the "pig cycle" in agriculture [10]. Monopolistic Effects - The oligopolistic market structure amplifies supply-demand mismatches, resulting in significant price volatility [10]. - Major companies are reallocating production capacity from standard DDR4 memory to higher-margin products like HBM, further constraining the supply of standard memory [9]. Emerging Competitors - Domestic manufacturers like Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies are beginning to challenge the dominance of the major players, albeit with limited market share [17][19]. - These emerging companies are focusing on technological advancements and flexibility in production to respond more quickly to market demands [19]. Future Outlook - The rise of domestic manufacturers could lead to increased competition and potentially lower prices in the memory market as they focus on niche segments like edge computing and IoT [21]. - Historical trends suggest that monopolistic markets can be disrupted by technological innovation and increased competition, indicating a potential shift in the memory chip landscape [23]. - If domestic manufacturers can achieve a market share of over 30%, it is anticipated that memory prices will stabilize and return to more reasonable levels [25].