贪小便宜吃大亏？印度买俄油省百亿，美国却大涨关税，莫迪陷两难

Group 1 - India's oil imports from Russia surged from 1.2 million barrels per day in 2022 to 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023, accounting for one-third of its total oil imports, resulting in savings of approximately $5 billion to $10 billion annually [3][5] - The U.S. government has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil, which could significantly impact India's refining margins and profitability [5][8] - Indian refineries are primarily designed for high-sulfur Russian oil, making it challenging to switch to alternative sources without significant modifications [8][10] Group 2 - The CSIS report indicates that while Iraq and Saudi Arabia can provide high-sulfur oil as substitutes, the global idle production capacity is limited, which could lead to price spikes if India attempts to shift its sourcing rapidly [10][12] - India's government is planning to gradually reduce the proportion of Russian oil from 33% to 25% by 2026, adopting a cautious approach to manage the transition [15] - The current economic indicators show that India has a low inflation rate of 2.6% and a trade deficit of only 0.2%, providing some buffer as it navigates the energy market challenges [12][14] Group 3 - The strategy of slowly transitioning away from Russian oil while monitoring U.S. sanctions is seen as a prudent approach, allowing India to take advantage of lower oil prices in the future [12][15] - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics highlight the risks of relying on foreign oil supplies, emphasizing the importance of energy independence for India [17]