降息救不了美国地产？

Group 1 - The core theme of the article is the K-shaped recovery and recession in the U.S. economy post-global public health events, highlighting the contrasting performance of high-end manufacturing and the real estate sector [1] - The expectation for the U.S. real estate market in the coming year largely hinges on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which historically have a positive impact on real estate investments and sales [9][11] - The current down cycle in the U.S. real estate market has been prolonged, lasting four years since November 2021, with a notable decline in existing home sales but resilience in new home sales and rising home prices [11][14] Group 2 - The complexity of the current real estate cycle is attributed to both cyclical and structural factors, including high mortgage rates and insufficient housing supply since 2008, leading to high prices and cautious behavior from developers [14][16] - A significant portion of existing mortgage loans have low rates, discouraging homeowners from buying or selling, which contributes to a decrease in the supply of existing homes [16][19] - The housing deficit in the U.S. remains historically high, with approximately 4.7 million units needed, while new home construction is expected to be lower than previous years, maintaining upward pressure on prices and rents [22][31] Group 3 - Proposed policy measures to address the real estate challenges include introducing 50-year fixed-rate mortgages to lower monthly payments and various supply-side reforms aimed at increasing housing availability [29][32] - The outlook for the real estate market in the coming year suggests limited improvement in supply, with builders remaining cautious due to high costs and reduced profit margins, while demand is expected to stabilize with potential interest rate cuts [31][32] - The political landscape, particularly the upcoming midterm elections, may influence fiscal policies that could impact the real estate market, with a focus on addressing affordability issues for lower-income households [33]