报告派研读：2025-2026年有色金属行业年度策略

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to experience a comprehensive explosion in 2025 after stabilizing at the bottom in 2024, marking the beginning of a new upward cycle driven by multiple macro and industrial factors [1][19] - The core drivers of this bullish trend include the restoration of macro expectations following the Geneva Agreement between China and the US, the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, ongoing disruptions in the global supply chain due to resource country policy regulations, and structural demand growth from the energy transition and AI data center construction [1][19] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that these dynamics will continue to elevate the price center of non-ferrous metals and improve overall industry profitability [2] Group 2 - In terms of sub-sectors, precious metals, industrial metals, energy metals, and rare metals all exhibit strong growth potential [3] - Gold is expected to maintain its bull market due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing rate cuts and increasing US debt issues [4] - Liquidity easing is likely to drive global gold ETF purchases, while the accelerating trend of "de-dollarization" will enhance central banks' willingness to buy gold, highlighting its strategic reserve value [5] Group 3 - In the industrial metals sector, copper is identified as a key representative of long-cycle prosperity, with limited new copper mine projects and frequent production disruptions leading to a persistent supply shortage [7] - The demand side shows resilience, with traditional sectors experiencing reduced downward pressure and rapid growth in copper demand from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, and AI data centers [7] - AI data center construction is projected to contribute an additional 50-72 thousand tons of copper demand by 2026, becoming a significant new growth engine [8] Group 4 - In the energy metals sector, cobalt prices are on an upward trend, driven by supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) implementing export quota management starting in 2025, which will reduce quotas by 56% compared to 2024 production levels [10] - Despite capacity releases from Indonesia's MHP project, the incremental supply is insufficient to fill the gap, leading to a shift from surplus to shortage in global cobalt supply-demand balance, with a projected shortfall of 53 thousand tons by 2026 [11] Group 5 - The strategic value of rare metals, particularly rare earths, is significantly enhanced, with China's export controls on heavy and medium rare earths leading to a substantial price disparity in overseas markets [13] - Domestic policies are tightening, further increasing industry concentration, while demand from new applications such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economies is expected to drive growth [15][16] - A projected demand of 8,400 tons of neodymium oxide by 2030 indicates a compound annual growth rate of 169%, with a substantial supply gap expected to emerge from 2026 onwards [17] Group 6 - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that will benefit from the rising gold prices, such as Zhongjin Gold, and those with rich copper resources like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [17] - Companies like Huayou Cobalt will benefit from the supply contraction in cobalt from the DRC, while Northern Rare Earths is recommended for its comprehensive rare earth industry chain layout [17]