安井食品(603345)深度报告:静水流深处 云开见月明

Group 1 - The company is shifting from a reliance on large B2B clients in the restaurant sector to a "selective supermarket customization" strategy, collaborating deeply with retailers like Sam's Club, Walmart, and Hema to launch customized products [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue from supermarket channels reached 220 million, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%, with this model becoming a clear new performance engine due to low costs, rapid development, and high premiums [1] - The company is adopting a product-driven approach, focusing on high-margin, high-value consumer products to stimulate the existing market and lead consumption trends, while also expanding into the frozen baking sector through acquisitions [1] Group 2 - The company is implementing a "de-involution" strategy, emphasizing "not engaging in unprofitable activities" and replacing "cost reduction" with "quality improvement" to optimize market competition [1] - The company has established a total cost leadership advantage through supply chain, logistics, and flexible production, with raw material and logistics costs below industry levels, supported by 12 production bases for flexible capacity allocation [1] - The company has formed a comprehensive distribution matrix involving distributors, specialty channels, and new retail/e-commerce to effectively diversify risks and drive growth [1] Group 3 - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.944 billion, 17.338 billion, and 18.836 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of +5.4%, +8.7%, and +8.6% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.419 billion, 1.621 billion, and 1.789 billion for the same period, with a year-on-year change of -4.5%, +14.2%, and +10.4% respectively [2] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 70% in 2024, with a first-time coverage rating of "buy" [2]