台当局宣布对大陆征税，不到24小时收到消息，赖清德怕什么来什么

Core Viewpoint - The Taiwanese government has announced new anti-dumping taxes on mainland Chinese products, specifically beer and steel, which has led to immediate responses from Chinese maritime authorities, indicating escalating tensions in cross-strait relations [1][3][8]. Group 1: Tax Policy and Economic Impact - The new anti-dumping tax rates are set at 51.94% for mainland beer and between 16.10% and 20.15% for hot-rolled steel, marking the highest anti-dumping taxes in history for Taiwan [1][3]. - The tax policy will be retroactive to July 2025, and the decision to impose these taxes was influenced by local industries claiming that low-priced mainland products harmed their sales [3][5]. - Mainland beer brands under investigation include Budweiser and Tsingtao, while the steel products primarily involve hot-rolled steel coils essential for infrastructure and automotive industries [5][13]. Group 2: Political Context and Military Implications - The Taiwanese government, led by Lai Ching-te, is increasing its defense budget to 3.3% of GDP next year, with plans to raise it to 5% by 2030, citing military threats from mainland China [5][7]. - Lai's statements about military preparations by mainland China are seen as attempts to justify increased military spending and to rally domestic support against perceived external threats [7][11]. - The timing of the tax increase coincides with heightened military rhetoric, suggesting a strategy to consolidate internal support while aligning with U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific region [7][10]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market share of mainland beer in Taiwan has grown significantly, reaching 36% in Q1 2024, with imports valued at $125 million, indicating strong consumer preference despite potential price increases due to new taxes [13][15]. - The cost of locally produced steel is already 15%-20% higher than mainland prices, and the new taxes will further inflate costs for Taiwanese manufacturers, potentially leading to increased prices for consumers or reduced profit margins for businesses [13][15]. - The economic strain from these policies may lead to reduced public spending in essential services such as education and healthcare, impacting the general populace [15][16].