半夏投资李蓓：勾勒牛市三阶段，预判资本回流中国

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the founder of Banxia Investment, Li Bei, outlines a three-stage path for a bull market, starting with valuation recovery and moving towards a comprehensive reallocation of wealth driven by the wealth effect [1] - The first stage of the bull market involves a gradual recovery of stock market valuations relative to fixed income markets, with risk premiums returning to mid-levels but not reaching extremes [1] - The second stage is contingent on investors seeing tangible improvements in data and corporate earnings before further market entry [1] Group 2 - The third stage is characterized by a wave of comprehensive reallocation, including the migration of household savings, restructuring of domestic asset allocations, and the return of global capital to the Chinese market [1] - Li Bei predicts that if China rebounds in two years, the domestic industry will regain high profitability and vitality after supply-side clearing, while AI investments in the U.S. are likely to slow down, raising doubts about the sustainability of high fiscal deficits [1][3] - Multiple factors may trigger a global asset allocation migration, leading to capital flowing back into the Chinese market [1][3]