Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-30 06:40Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that marginal demand has become increasingly significant in explaining gold pricing, with stable supply and an annual production of approximately 3,600 tons [1][2] - Gold demand is categorized into three parts: private sector consumption, investment, and official purchases, with past marginal demand primarily driven by European and American ETF demand [1][2] - The investment framework for these ETFs is closely linked to the real interest rates of U.S. Treasury bonds, and private sector investment demand remains strongly correlated with these rates [1][2] Group 2 - As U.S. inflation declines and labor market resilience weakens, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased for the second half of the year [1][2] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to lead to a decrease in both nominal and real interest rates, which will likely drive gold prices higher [1][2]