业界大佬：全球铜都在流向美国

Group 1 - Kostas Bintas, head of metals at Mercuria Energy Group, reiterated a bullish outlook on copper prices, warning of potential depletion of copper inventories outside the U.S. due to a surge in metal inflow into the U.S. market [1] - Bintas highlighted that profitable arbitrage trading is returning, leading to supply shortages outside the U.S. and pushing copper prices higher, with even Chinese buyers likely needing to pay higher premiums to secure supply [1][2] - The current market dynamics, characterized by weak demand and surplus yet rising prices, is seen as a "special dynamic" that could lead to shortages in the Chinese market as metal continues to flow to the U.S. [2] Group 2 - The U.S. has become the largest consumer of copper globally, with significant premiums on New York futures prices compared to London benchmarks, driven by U.S. policy and tariff speculation [3] - The market is experiencing a "dual-speed" mechanism, where LME and Shanghai copper contracts are supported by Russian and Chinese metals, while metals deliverable to Comex enjoy high premiums [3] - Traders are pushing up premiums for deliverable copper, with some attempting to buy Chilean copper at premiums exceeding $500 over LME prices, indicating a significant price increase in the Asian market [4] Group 3 - Bintas anticipates a tighter market scenario if U.S. copper prices continue to rise to $12,000 or $15,000, which would lead to a significant outflow of Chinese copper cathodes [5] - As Chinese buyers return from the Spring Festival, they may find insufficient copper supply in the market, exacerbating the tightness [5]