邓正红能源软实力：软实力收缩期国际油价持续走低标志石油市场根本逻辑的转变

Core Insights - International oil prices have declined for the fourth consecutive month in November, indicating a fundamental shift in the oil market dynamics [1] - Traditional supply-demand factors are losing their influence, with new drivers such as rules and expectations taking precedence [1] - The strengthening of the dollar and geopolitical shifts are reshaping risk pricing models in the oil market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by increased production from U.S. shale oil and OPEC's decision to pause production increases, while global economic weakness is impacting demand [1][3] - The dollar's appreciation is reducing the actual purchasing power of oil priced in dollars, suppressing speculative demand [1][3] - OPEC's policy shift to pause production increases signals an attempt to manage market expectations through rule adjustments rather than solely through production cuts [1][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - There is a significant oversupply in the global oil market, with projections indicating a potential daily surplus of 4 million barrels by 2026 [3] - U.S. EIA reported an increase in crude oil inventories by 2.774 million barrels, exacerbating oversupply expectations [3] - Global oil demand growth for 2025 has been revised down to 680,000 barrels per day, reflecting weak demand [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The easing of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict may lead to a relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil exports, increasing global supply [3] - Improved relations between the U.S. and Venezuela could alter the energy export landscape [3] - OPEC's strategy includes maintaining a daily production increase of 137,000 barrels in December while pausing further increases in the first quarter of 2026 [3] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Short-term trends suggest that oil prices may continue to decline, with forecasts indicating Brent crude could drop to the $30 per barrel range by 2027 [4] - Long-term challenges in energy competition will focus on three dimensions of soft power: digital rules, technical standards, and climate narratives [4] - Oil-producing countries are advised to innovate rules, manage expectations, and enhance value creation to navigate the current market landscape [4]