【首席观察】首提稳定币非法风险 13部门为何此时升级虚拟货币监管

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint meeting of 13 departments in China marks a significant escalation in the regulation of virtual currencies, particularly focusing on stablecoins as a form of illegal financial activity, indicating a shift from risk prevention to criminalization of such activities [2][3][8]. Regulatory Focus - The meeting signals a shift in regulatory focus from "mining and speculation risks" in 2021 to "cross-border capital flows and shadow dollars" in 2025 [5][6]. - Stablecoins, particularly USDT, are identified as a major gray channel for capital outflow, with USDT accounting for approximately 90% of OTC transactions in China [6][8]. Systemic Risks - S&P downgraded USDT's stability rating to "weak," citing an increase in high-risk assets from 17% to 24%, with Bitcoin comprising 5.6% of its reserves [9][10]. - USDT's circulation has approached $184 billion, creating a "shadow dollar pool" with systemic risks due to its high volatility and low collateralization [9][10]. Shadow Banking Concerns - Tether, the issuer of USDT, is becoming akin to a "shadow central bank," with significant holdings in gold and other commodities, raising concerns about its influence on global price chains [10][11]. - The increase in Tether's gold reserves, which reached approximately 116 tons, poses structural risks for countries pursuing "de-dollarization" [10][12]. Regulatory Evolution - The regulatory approach has evolved from defining virtual currencies as illegal to explicitly categorizing stablecoins as illegal financial activities, aiming to protect capital account management and monetary sovereignty [13][14]. - The regulatory logic remains consistent: virtual currencies are illegal, stablecoins fall under this category, and their cross-border and gray uses must be curtailed to pave the way for the digital yuan (e-CNY) [14][19]. Enforcement Mechanisms - The regulatory framework will involve enhanced collaboration among various government agencies to monitor and control information and capital flows, aiming to block illegal activities [20][21]. - Criminalization of stablecoin transactions may extend to charges related to money laundering and aiding cybercrime, increasing the legal risks for individuals and institutions involved [21][22]. Global Implications - The tightening of regulations in China is expected to raise compliance pressures for institutions and increase the risks associated with gray channels for individuals [22][23]. - The global landscape for stablecoins is entering a "second phase," with heightened awareness and regulatory responses to the risks posed by these financial instruments [22][23].