Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-30 08:17Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to continue, providing new momentum for gold prices to rise [1] Demand and Supply Analysis - The report emphasizes that the marginal demand for gold is becoming a more significant factor in its pricing, with traditional supply-demand logic indicating that gold supply remains relatively stable at around 3,600 tons annually [1] - Gold demand is categorized into three main components: private sector consumption demand, private sector investment demand, and official gold purchases [1] - Historically, the marginal demand for gold has been primarily driven by ETF demand from the private sector in Europe and the U.S., which is largely influenced by the real interest rates of U.S. Treasury bonds [1] Interest Rate Influence - CITIC Securities notes a strong correlation between private sector investment demand (such as ETF demand) and the real interest rates of U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - With the decline in U.S. inflation and a decrease in labor market resilience, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased in the latter half of the year [1] - The anticipated decrease in nominal and real interest rates due to these cuts is expected to inject new momentum into gold prices [1]