俄罗斯能源战节节败退，普京政府加速绑定中国？

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of U.S.-led sanctions on Russia's economy, particularly its energy sector, and the subsequent shift towards increased energy cooperation with China as a survival strategy [1][5]. Group 1: Sanctions Impact - U.S. sanctions have severely affected Russia's two major oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, cutting their ties to the global dollar financial system [1]. - As a result of these sanctions, Russia's oil exports have declined for four consecutive weeks, with Urals crude prices dropping to $45 per barrel, nearly $20 lower than Brent prices [1]. - The sanctions have led to significant logistical challenges, with at least 48 million barrels of oil stranded at sea and Asian buyers avoiding Russian oil [1][3]. Group 2: Shift in Export Patterns - Major Russian oil export ports in the Baltic Sea are experiencing declining export volumes, while the Kozmino port in the Pacific, which exports to China, is seeing an increase [2]. - This shift is not a strategic choice but a reaction to survival pressures from sanctions [2]. Group 3: Financial Consequences - Approximately 40% of Russia's fiscal revenue comes from oil exports, with Rosneft and Lukoil controlling over 60% of the country's oil exports [3]. - Reliance Industries, a major buyer, has ceased imports of Russian oil, further straining Russia's financial situation [3]. Group 4: Energy Cooperation with China - China has become Russia's primary energy export market, accounting for nearly 20% of its crude oil imports [5]. - Russia's energy exports to China have decreased by 19% in value and 8.1% in volume in the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to falling international oil prices [5]. - Despite the challenges, Russia continues to offer discounted prices to China to maintain market share, with the average price for Russian crude at $574 per ton, significantly lower than Saudi oil [5]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The dependency on China for energy exports exposes Russia to fluctuations in Chinese market demand, increasing its vulnerability [5]. - Russia's energy strategy is increasingly seen as a survival choice driven by sanctions, revealing structural weaknesses in its economy and foreign relations [5].