关于黄金对现代货币供应体系的影响

Core Viewpoint - The traditional monetary banking theory, which relies on fiat debt expansion, is becoming outdated as it fails to account for the significant effects of cross-border capital flows and the substitution of fiat currency with assets like gold [5][6][12]. Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flow Effects - The flow of money between the US and non-US systems is heavily influenced by interest rate differentials, leading to a contradiction where low rates may not necessarily increase money supply if capital flows favor higher rates [9][11]. - Traditional models assumed weak effects from cross-border capital flows, but this assumption has proven unreliable as evidenced by the contrary performance of US and Chinese stock markets [12][14]. Group 2: Substitution Effect of Safe-Haven Assets - The rise of modern financial instruments has altered the mechanisms of money supply, with gold and cryptocurrencies increasingly substituting cash, thus changing the pricing formula for risk assets [15][19]. - Since 2022, the rapid increase in gold prices has significantly impacted global money supply, with gold's market value expanding by approximately $15 trillion in one year, contrasting sharply with the $2.4 trillion reduction in US Treasury bonds [21][23]. Group 3: Implications for US Dollar Stability - The behavior of central banks in increasing gold reserves may initially seem detrimental to the US dollar, but the resulting rise in gold prices can support US equities, ultimately strengthening the dollar [29][34]. - The shift in the support structure for the dollar from US Treasury bonds to equities indicates a complex interplay where rising gold prices can enhance liquidity and attract foreign investment, thereby stabilizing the dollar [34][36]. Group 4: Debt Management Strategies - The analysis suggests that monetary expansion can occur through various channels, including fiat debt expansion, interest rate hikes, and rising gold prices, each with different cost implications [37][40]. - The potential for a debt exchange with international investors during periods of rising risk asset prices highlights a strategic approach to managing national debt [43].