俄罗斯能源战节节败退，普京政府加速“绑定中国”？

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of U.S.-led sanctions on the Russian economy, particularly in the energy sector, and highlights Russia's shift towards increased energy cooperation with China as a survival strategy [1][6]. Group 1: Sanctions and Economic Impact - U.S. sanctions have targeted major Russian oil companies, cutting them off from the global dollar financial system, leading to a significant drop in Russia's oil exports and prices [1][2]. - The price of Urals crude oil has plummeted to $45 per barrel, nearly $20 lower than Brent crude, with approximately 48 million barrels stranded at sea due to sanctions [1][2]. - Russian oil exports through traditional Baltic ports are declining, while exports to China via Pacific routes are increasing, indicating a forced pivot rather than a strategic choice [2][4]. Group 2: Energy Dependency on China - China has become the primary market for Russian energy exports, accounting for nearly 20% of its crude oil imports, with significant savings on oil costs due to discounted prices [6][7]. - Despite the reliance on China, Russian energy exports to China decreased by 19% in the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to falling international oil prices and logistical challenges [6][7]. - Russia is making concessions on energy prices to maintain market share in China, with the average price of Urals crude for China at $574 per ton, significantly lower than Saudi prices [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments and Challenges - The sanctions have forced Russia to adopt clandestine oil trading methods, increasing logistics costs and reducing profit margins, while also compromising delivery reliability [4][6]. - Russia's economic structure reveals a critical vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on resource exports and lack of high-value-added industries [6][7]. - The relationship with China is viewed as a geopolitical refuge for Russia, but it risks becoming overly dependent on China, potentially leading to a status of "energy vassal" if economic reforms are not undertaken [7].