年内涨幅超95%，白银逆袭黄金成贵金属“领涨王”

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has emerged as a standout performer in the precious metals sector, achieving over 95% growth this year, significantly outperforming gold and setting multiple historical price records [1][3]. Price Performance - COMEX silver and London spot silver have reached historical highs of $57.245 per ounce and $56.533 per ounce, respectively [1]. - In the domestic market, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassed 13,000 yuan per kilogram, peaking at 13,239 yuan per kilogram, marking a new high since its listing [1]. Market Dynamics - The bullish trend in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a significant influx of private investor funds into precious metal ETFs following the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and a perceived valuation gap between silver and gold [4]. - Global silver inventories have dropped to near ten-year lows, with free-flowing silver in the London market decreasing by approximately 75% from its peak in 2019, while demand from industrial sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles continues to rise [4][5]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The silver market has faced a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with a projected shortfall of 148.9 million ounces in 2024, expected to narrow to 117.7 million ounces in 2025, but the overall shortage trend remains unchanged [5]. - Global silver supply is anticipated to grow only modestly, with a forecast of 1.73% increase to 1.015 billion ounces in 2024, primarily due to constraints in mining output and declining ore grades [5][6]. Long-term Projections - The current supply-demand imbalance is expected to provide solid support for silver prices, despite a narrowing of the deficit, as any supply disruptions could significantly impact prices due to low inventory levels [6]. - The medium to long-term outlook for silver prices remains positive, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, a potential weakening of the dollar, and a recovery in industrial demand [7].