中美GDP比例掉头向下，70%魔咒背后藏着猫腻，真实差距在变小？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the apparent decline in China's GDP proportion relative to the US is misleading, as it is influenced by factors such as exchange rates, inflation, and differing statistical methods [1][3][5] - China's actual economic growth rate in 2023 is 5.2%, nearly double the US's 2.9%, yet the GDP proportion to the US has decreased due to currency depreciation and inflationary pressures in the US [3][11] - The US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have led to a depreciation of the RMB by over 10% from late 2021 to early 2024, directly impacting the GDP comparison between China and the US [5][6] Group 2 - By the end of 2023, China's GDP, when calculated at 2021 exchange rates, would exceed $20 trillion, resulting in a proportion of over 73% compared to the US, rather than the currently reported 64% [8] - The nominal GDP growth rate for the US in 2023 is approximately 6.3%, while China's nominal growth rate is 4.6%, leading to a situation where China's actual growth is higher than its nominal growth [11] - The US's high inflation has inflated its nominal GDP figures, creating a false sense of economic prosperity, while the actual purchasing power of American citizens is declining [11][13] Group 3 - The US GDP calculation includes non-productive elements such as "imputed rent" for owner-occupied housing, which contributes significantly to its GDP but does not reflect actual production [15] - The structure of demand in the US economy is heavily reliant on consumer spending, accounting for about 80%, while China's consumer spending contribution is only 53.5% [17] - In terms of real economic indicators, China's manufacturing output is 1.67 times that of the US, with its primary and secondary industries significantly outpacing the US [17]