Prediction: 2025's Second-Worst-Performing Dow Jones Stock Will Beat the Market in 2026

Core Viewpoint - Salesforce is still considered a viable long-term investment despite its recent underperformance compared to the broader market, with a significant decline in stock value in 2025 [2][3][12]. Company Performance - Salesforce's stock has decreased by 31.0% in 2025, making it one of the worst performers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average [2]. - Since being added to the Dow on August 31, 2020, Salesforce has dropped 14.9%, while the Dow has increased by 66.5% during the same period [3]. - The company is guiding for approximately 9% revenue growth for fiscal 2026, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to previous years [10]. Market Position and Competition - Salesforce specializes in customer relationship management (CRM) software and has a suite of tools embedded in many large enterprises [4]. - The rise of AI has created mixed reactions among investors, as it enhances established ecosystems, benefiting competitors like Microsoft, which integrates its CRM with other software solutions [6][7]. - Salesforce's AI platform, Agentforce, aims to enhance user capabilities but may lead to reduced demand for additional licenses, complicating growth prospects [9]. Financial Metrics - Salesforce has a market capitalization of $219 billion and a gross margin of 69.91% [12]. - The company has a 21.2% operating margin and is guiding for a non-GAAP full-year operating margin of 34.1% [13]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 and a forward price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 17.7, which are considered attractive in the current market [13]. Investment Considerations - Despite challenges, Salesforce is viewed as a compelling value for long-term investors due to its low stock price reflecting significant doubt [15]. - The company has a strong balance sheet, with cash and marketable securities roughly double its long-term debt, and it began paying a quarterly dividend in 2024 [14]. - The stock is seen as a potential contrarian buy for 2026, with modest results possibly leading to market-beating performance [17].