Core Viewpoint - The recent $1 trillion decline in U.S. software giants like Microsoft and Salesforce has raised concerns, but many industry leaders believe the narrative of a software "Armageddon" is exaggerated, despite acknowledging that AI valuations appear inflated [1][5]. Group 1: AI Valuations and Market Sentiment - Arvind Jain, founder of Glean, a $7 billion AI unicorn, believes AI will not render software-as-a-service obsolete, emphasizing the importance of integration for future success [2][5]. - Andrey Khusid, founder of Miro, a $17 billion decacorn, acknowledges that AI valuations are excessive but predicts normalization within the next two years [5]. - Larry Li, founder of Amino Capital, suggests that the AI bubble is deflating, particularly for larger companies, indicating a potential market correction [5]. Group 2: IPO Market and Company Strategies - Discussions at the Web Summit highlighted that AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic are competing to go public, aiming to attract investor interest in the rapidly growing sector [7]. - Khusid prefers to remain private, citing profitability and operational efficiency without the pressures of public markets [7][9]. - Many AI startups, including OpenAI, are not yet profitable, with OpenAI projected to lose $14 billion this year, yet investment in the sector remains robust, with over $340 billion directed towards global startups in 2025, 65% of which is in AI [9][10]. Group 3: Funding Landscape and Competitive Dynamics - Non-AI startups are facing a tougher funding environment, as they are often compared to AI companies that are experiencing extreme growth rates [10][11]. - The U.S.-China AI race is a significant topic, with the U.S. leading in innovation while China excels in scaling due to its supply chain advantages and a larger pool of AI engineers [13]. - Despite recent stock market volatility, the Dow Jones has surpassed the 50,000 mark, reflecting ongoing optimism in the AI sector, although a valuation reset is anticipated [14].

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector has experienced significant losses over the past week, with major companies facing double-digit declines, marking a three-month downturn in tech stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The slump in U.S. technology stocks has persisted for three months, primarily affecting growth stocks, which are companies that typically increase earnings faster than the market average [2]. - Investors have shifted their preference from growth stocks to value stocks, which are less volatile and often have cheaper valuations relative to their earnings and long-term growth potential [3]. - The Russell 1000 Value index has increased by 8.4% since Halloween, while the tech-heavy Russell 1000 Growth index has decreased by 3.7% [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There has been a notable decline in investor optimism regarding artificial intelligence, which had previously driven technology stock prices higher [6]. - The recent downturn in tech stocks has been exacerbated by a lack of confidence in AI's ability to significantly enhance corporate financial performance and the broader economy [6]. - The rapid rise in tech stock prices has made them vulnerable to sharp declines upon any signs of disappointment, as evidenced by Microsoft's recent stock drop despite beating Wall Street expectations [7]. Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has seen a decline of almost 21%, Intuit (INTU) is down more than 17%, Micron Technology (MU) has dropped nearly 13%, Microsoft (MSFT) is down about 7%, Nvidia (NVDA) has fallen 9%, and Salesforce (CRM) has decreased by 12.5% [8]. - Microsoft experienced its largest one-day stock drop since March 2020, falling 11% due to signs of slowing cloud revenue, which is closely tied to AI [9].

Core Viewpoint - Salesforce is experiencing significant stock volatility, with a year-to-date decline of 27% and a 12-month drop of 43%, amid broader market sell-offs and specific concerns regarding AI software competition [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Context - Salesforce stock dropped approximately 8% on February 3, coinciding with a 0.8% decline in the S&P 500 and a 2.4% drop in the Nasdaq Composite, driven by high-tech valuation concerns and potential government shutdowns [1][2]. - The stock is currently trading at a 52-week low of $191.35, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic [8]. Group 2: AI Competition and Strategic Partnerships - The introduction of a new AI plug-in by Anthropic, which can handle legal queries and clerical tasks, has raised fears that it could disrupt traditional software models like Salesforce's [5][6]. - Despite these concerns, Salesforce is a partner with Anthropic, utilizing its Claude chatbot for its Agentforce model, which aims to enhance user experience through improved interaction [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Salesforce reported a 114% year-over-year increase in annual recurring revenue for Agentforce and Data 360, reaching $1.4 billion, with Agentforce accounts growing by 70% quarter over quarter [9]. - The company's remaining performance obligation pipeline increased by 11% to $29.4 billion, and it raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, indicating potential for recovery [9]. - Salesforce recently secured a $5.6 billion contract with the U.S. Army, further bolstering its financial outlook [9].

超过80%的IT领导者认为，由于集成挑战和数据孤岛问题，AI智能体的快速扩张将带来比价值更多的复 杂性，这是根据周四发布的《2026年Salesforce连接基准报告》得出的结论。该公司与Vanson Bourne和 德勤数字合作，对1050名IT领导者进行了调研。 企业平均使用12个智能体，预计到2027年这一数字将增加到20个。然而，根据96%的IT领导者反馈，智 能体AI的长期有效性取决于数据集成。平均每个组织管理着957个应用程序，但由于数据分散，只有 27%的应用程序实现了连接，这意味着智能体无法获得所需的数据。 几乎所有企业在AI应用案例中都遇到数据壁垒，64%的IT领导者对实现AI部署目标的能力表示担忧。 随着企业继续采用AI智能体，IT领导者面临着协调和支持多智能体生态系统的日益严峻挑战。 Salesforce报告发现，孤立工作的智能体可能导致工作流程脱节、自动化冗余以及影子AI风险增加—— 即未经授权使用AI工具。 整合孤立的应用程序和数据仍然是35%受访者的主要障碍。根据报告，IT领导者正在评估API作为连接 AI智能体的一种方法。三分之一的IT团队已经在使用API加速跨系统集成。 更广泛 ...

Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify Risk off concerns, Bitcoin sell off (0:20) Software stocks drop (2:00) Big name AI earnings (4:00) Good news for Hershey (10:45) Next week's earnings and economic data (12:00) Transcript Rena Sherbill: Brian Stewart, Seeking Alpha's Director of News. Welcome back to another week of Wall Street Roundup. Brian Stewart: Great to be here. Rena Sherbill: It's great to have you talk to us. We've got Bitcoin, we've ...

Key Takeaways MSFT and other software leaders sank as AI fears sparked a $1T sell-off dubbed software-mageddon. Market volatility surged as the VIX jumped 17% to 21.77, its highest level since late November. Rotation out of technology into staples and value boosts demand for low-volatility ETFs like SPLV. A massive sell-off in shares of tech giants, such as Microsoft (MSFT) , Salesforce (CRM) , and ServiceNow (NOW) , wiped out nearly $1 trillion in industry value in just a week, marking a dramatic shift in ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant sell-off in the software sector, triggered by the introduction of AI capabilities by Anthropic, which threatens traditional software companies and their business models [4][6][19]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The global capital market has indiscriminately sold off software stocks, with major companies like Salesforce, Workday, and Intuit losing nearly $258 billion in market value in a single day [4]. - The North American software index experienced a 15% decline in January, marking the worst monthly performance since 2008 [4]. - The sell-off has spread to the Asia-Pacific market, leading to sharp declines in the stock prices of several industry leaders [4]. Group 2: AI's Impact on Software - Anthropic's AI application, Claude Cowork, has introduced capabilities that allow it to perform tasks traditionally done by humans, such as managing files and operating software [8][10]. - The release of specific plugins for various industries, including law and finance, indicates a shift where AI is not just a tool but a competitor to traditional software providers [11][13]. - Analysts predict that up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs may be impacted by AI within the next 1 to 5 years, posing a threat to companies that provide software tools for these roles [13]. Group 3: Software Industry Challenges - Software vendors are in a precarious position, needing to demonstrate revenue growth to alleviate concerns about AI's impact [15]. - Major companies are announcing layoffs, indicating a tightening of corporate budgets and a reluctance to invest in traditional software when AI can perform tasks at a lower cost [16]. - The trend of "downgrading" software is emerging, as companies reconsider the necessity of expensive SaaS solutions in light of AI capabilities [16]. Group 4: Future of Software Companies - The software industry is expected to split into two categories: "tool-based" software that will likely be eliminated and "system-based" software that must adapt to survive [24][25]. - Future software companies will need to shift from a per-user pricing model to a results-based pricing model, as AI agents reduce the need for human users [27]. - Gartner predicts that by the end of 2026, 40% of enterprise SaaS will incorporate outcome-based pricing elements, marking a significant shift in the industry [27].

We recently published Jim Cramer Discussed These 12 Stocks & Wondered Whether He Should Melt Silver.  Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) is one of the stocks that Jim Cramer discussed. Customer relationship management software Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM)’s shares are among the poorest performers in the market. They are down by 42% over the past year and by 21% year-to-date. Piper Sandler cut the share price target to $280 from $315 and maintained an Overweight rating on the shares in early February. The financia ...

来源：国际投行研究报告 雅诗兰黛下跌19% 增长恐慌拖累美股再次下跌！ 疲软的劳动力市场数据和对AI的忧虑进一步拉低美国股市，标普500指数年内转跌。软件股也再次大幅 下跌；比特币下跌13%，拖累Strategy股价下跌19%。 标普500指数信息技术板块下跌1.7%。微软(Microsoft)下跌5%，Salesforce回落4.7%。这轮跌势继续冲击 半导体公司，包括Advanced Micro Devices，该公司收盘下跌3.9%；以及英伟达(Nvidia)，该公司收盘下 跌1.4%。 Alphabet股价下跌0.5%，此前这家谷歌(Google)的母公司表示，今年可能进行最高可达1,850亿美元的人 工智能相关资本投资。高通(Qualcomm)发布的疲软预测拖累了这家芯片制造商的股价，其股价下跌了 8.5%。 雅诗兰黛(Estée Lauder)股价下跌19%，在标普500指数成份股中跌幅最大，此前这家美妆集团表示，预 计今年与关税相关的不利因素将使其利润减少约1亿美元。发动机制造商康明斯(Cummins)股价下跌 11%，创下自2020年3月新冠疫情爆发之初以来的最大单日百分比跌幅。 投资者涌入公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The panic in tech stocks is primarily due to a misunderstanding of AI models like Claude and ChatGPT, leading to significant undervaluation of certain stocks [1] Group 1 - The current market situation has resulted in very cheap stocks within the tech sector [1]