居民消费日益成为增长的决定性拉动力

Core Insights - The core argument is that in China's new development stage, the main constraint on economic growth has shifted from the supply side to the demand side, with resident consumption becoming the decisive driving force for growth [1][2]. Demand-Side Constraints - Demand-side constraints, particularly in resident consumption, have become the primary limitation on China's economic growth, influenced by factors such as declining manufacturing advantages, the transition to high-quality development, and demographic changes like population decline and aging [2][3]. - The transition from investment-driven to consumption-driven growth is essential as China faces challenges from a decreasing population and slower income growth, which significantly suppresses resident consumption [2][5]. Economic Growth Dynamics - The relationship between resident consumption rates and economic growth is critical; higher consumption rates correlate with lower probabilities of significant economic slowdown, highlighting the importance of maintaining consumption at levels consistent with development stages to avoid the middle-income trap [3][4]. Barriers to Consumption Growth - Several barriers must be overcome to enhance resident consumption, including the long-term trend of slowing GDP and disposable income growth, which is exacerbated by demographic shifts and the transition to a higher economic development stage [5][6]. - The existing income distribution gap, characterized by a high Gini coefficient, limits overall consumption demand as lower-income households tend to have a higher marginal propensity to consume [6][7]. - Rapid aging and the phenomenon of "getting old before getting rich" further complicate consumption dynamics, as older populations typically have lower consumption rates and face multiple financial burdens [7][8]. Policy Recommendations - To foster necessary changes in consumption dynamics, a shift in mindset and policy is required, focusing on long-term human capital development and job creation to support household income and consumption [8][9]. - Improving income distribution through effective tax and transfer systems is crucial, as current redistributive measures in China are significantly lower than those in many OECD countries, indicating substantial potential for improvement [9][10]. - Expanding the provision of public goods and services is essential, as increased government spending on social services can enhance overall living standards and indirectly support consumption growth [10][11].