2026楼市还能涨吗？今明两年该存钱还是买房看这一篇就够

Core Insights - The current dilemma for many individuals is whether to save money in banks or invest in real estate, given the low interest rates and fluctuating property prices [1] Real Estate Market Trends - Overall, property prices have undergone significant adjustments, with a decline of approximately 30% from peak levels across both first-tier and second-tier cities [2] - Recent favorable policies include the relaxation of purchase restrictions, a reduction in mortgage rates to below 3.5%, and a decrease in down payment ratios to 15% [2] - Despite these policies, factors such as supply-demand dynamics, an aging population, and slowing income growth suggest that the adjustment in property prices is not yet over [2] Bank Deposit Interest Rates - Bank deposit interest rates have been declining, with the one-year deposit rate dropping from 2.25% in 2023 to 1.35% currently, resulting in a decrease of approximately 900 yuan in interest for a 100,000 yuan deposit over one year [4] - There is a likelihood of further declines in deposit rates over the next two years, which could erode both interest income and the purchasing power of principal [4] Investment Considerations - Not everyone is suited for buying property; the current price-to-income ratio in second-tier cities is around 20-25, and in first-tier cities, it exceeds 40, indicating that property prices are significantly above the affordability of average residents [5] - The risk of asset depreciation is high if property prices continue to decline, making it crucial for potential buyers to assess their risk versus reward [5] Recommendations for Savings vs. Buying - For most individuals, saving money in banks, despite low interest rates, is safer as it protects principal and avoids significant short-term losses [7] - It is advisable to wait for the real estate market to stabilize before making purchases, potentially leading to lower costs and reduced risks [7] Targeted Buyer Profiles - Two categories of buyers may still consider purchasing: - First, families with urgent needs such as marriage, relocation, or children's education, who can benefit from favorable policies [8] - Second, families looking to improve their living conditions or upgrade to larger homes, as current low bank rates and reduced upfront costs make buying more manageable [8] Conclusion - In summary, for those without urgent housing needs, saving money is a more prudent choice over the next two years, while those with pressing requirements or looking to improve their living conditions may still find value in purchasing property under current favorable conditions [10]