Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-01 00:00Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry is entering an upward cycle starting in 2023, driven by both domestic sales and exports, with total sales expected to steadily recover due to ongoing replacement demand for National IV and V models and significant export growth in non-Russian regions [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Heavy trucks, defined as commercial vehicles with a total weight exceeding 14 tons, are primarily used in logistics and engineering applications. Their sales are closely linked to macroeconomic conditions, replacement demand, and subsidy policies [2]. - The industry has seen a rebound in sales over the past two years, primarily due to the scrapping and replacement subsidies that have encouraged the elimination of older models, as well as structural growth from gas and new energy vehicles [2]. - By 2026, the natural scrapping demand for National IV and V models is expected to support an annual domestic sales scale of around 700,000 units, with total sales projected to remain around 1.1 million units [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The heavy truck market is characterized by a high concentration, with the top five companies maintaining a market share of over 80% for many years. This concentration is expected to benefit leading companies as the industry experiences rising profitability and high-margin export growth [2]. - The export market has significant potential, with an estimated market space of nearly 700,000 units, indicating further growth opportunities [2]. Group 3: Future Projections - The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales may slow down as the domestic purchase tax exemption is set to decline in 2026, transitioning the new energy heavy truck market to a market-driven phase [5]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is projected to be between 30-35% by 2026, while traditional fuel vehicles are expected to remain stable due to their dominance in long-haul transportation [5]. - Continued domestic replacement demand and sustained export growth are anticipated to support a stable high level of industry total volume through 2026 [9].