如何看待年底的港股红利行情？

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Total Return Index is expected to experience its strongest calendar effect from December to mid-January, with a high probability of absolute and excess returns during this period [1]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - The absolute return probability is 90.9%, with median and average gains of 3.4% and 4.6% respectively [3][19]. - The probability of excess returns compared to the CSI 300 Total Return Index is 81.8%, with median and average excess returns of 5.6% and 2.1% respectively [3][19]. - The probability of excess returns compared to the CSI Dividend Total Return Index is also 81.8%, with median and average excess returns of 3.6% and 3.2% respectively [3][19]. - The probability of excess returns compared to the Hang Seng Index Total Return is 81.8%, with median and average excess returns of 1.0% and 1.6% respectively [3][19]. Group 2: Reasons for Calendar Effect - A key reason for the strong year-end effect is the rebalancing of assets by public funds seeking relative returns, leading to a shift from high-valuation growth stocks to high-dividend, high-safety Hong Kong stocks [4]. - December to January is a peak period for insurance premiums, prompting some insurance funds to quickly build positions in high-dividend assets to match liability costs, creating a rigid buying pressure [4]. - Year-end policy catalysts or announcements may also stimulate the Hong Kong dividend market, especially if supportive dividend policies are implemented or if growth stabilization policies fall short of expectations [4]. Group 3: Historical Context - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Total Return Index has shown strong performance from December to mid-January since 2014, with a win rate of 82% compared to the CSI 300 Total Return, CSI Dividend Total Return, and Hang Seng Index Total Return [15][19]. - The index's trading volume currently represents only 6.1% of the market, indicating a relatively low level of crowding and potential for reallocation [15].