下游需求疲软 多晶硅期货价格上涨空间有限？

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to fundamental contradictions and changes in trading logic, with prices supported by reduced production and demand dynamics in the market [2][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - Polysilicon futures saw multiple contracts strengthen, with the near-month 2512 contract briefly surpassing 60,000 yuan/ton, and the main 2601 contract closing at 56,425 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 5.27% [2]. - As of November 28, the average price of N-type dense polysilicon remained stable at 50,000 yuan/ton, indicating that price increases have not yet translated to the component segment [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of polysilicon has contracted, with domestic production in November reported at 122,000 tons, a decrease of approximately 15,000 tons month-on-month [2]. - Downstream demand is showing signs of weakness, with expectations of a 20% decrease in overall silicon wafer production in December, and a significant drop in component production to 40 GW [4]. - Despite a reduction in production, polysilicon inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 281,000 tons as of November 28, indicating a persistent accumulation in the market [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there are cost supports in place, the overall market remains weak, with limited upward price potential in the short term due to abundant supply and lackluster demand [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and their impact on market dynamics is a point of concern for future price movements [5].