Ge Long Hui·2025-12-01 00:31Core Insights - The report discusses the potential for AI capital expenditure (Capex) growth, predicting a significant increase in both global and Chinese AI markets by 2030, with global AI Capex expected to grow 5-7 times from 2025 levels and Chinese AI Capex projected to increase 7-9 times [1][4][11] - The analysis highlights the early stage of AI applications and the ongoing data dividend from the internet, suggesting that AI investments have not peaked yet, despite potential volatility in U.S. tech stocks due to quarterly fluctuations in AI investment [1][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic AI chip manufacturers in China, forecasting a rise in the domestic market share from 30-40% in 2025 to 60-70% by 2030, driven by increased investment and technological advancements [11][14] AI Market Projections - By 2030, global token consumption is expected to increase to 100-340 times the levels of 2025, with reasoning power scaling up to 65-220 times [4][5] - The total computing power is projected to grow 16-55 times by 2030, with new computing power expected to increase by 10-39 times [4][5] - The AI chip market is anticipated to reach over $1 trillion by 2030, growing 5-9 times from 2025 levels, aligning with projections from major tech companies like NVIDIA and AMD [8][11] Investment Landscape - The report notes that U.S. cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to see a Capex of $406 billion by 2025, a 61% increase year-on-year, raising concerns about whether global Capex has peaked [3] - The Chinese AI chip market is projected to grow significantly, with domestic manufacturers expected to catch up due to increased investment and collaboration within the supply chain [11][14] - The report identifies several sectors that may benefit from the growth of AI, including liquid cooling, AI power supplies, and high-voltage direct current (HVDC) solutions, with significant market opportunities anticipated in these areas [14] Domestic AI Chip Development - The report highlights that domestic AI chips in China are currently lagging behind NVIDIA, but advancements in performance and software ecosystems are expected to improve competitiveness [11][14] - The domestic AI chip market is projected to grow from $35-40 billion in 2025 to 7-9 times that by 2030, driven by increased investment and technological breakthroughs [11][14] - The report suggests that the valuation of domestic AI companies may experience volatility until revenue and profit growth materialize [11]