白银价格狂飙创历史新高！年内涨幅近90%，光伏与新能源引爆工业需求，长期短缺格局奠定涨势基础

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, reaching historical highs in both domestic and international markets, driven by macroeconomic monetary policy expectations and supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Price Movements - On November 28, silver prices soared, with COMEX silver futures peaking at $57.245 per ounce and London spot silver reaching $56.78 per ounce [1] - The main contract for domestic silver futures hit a high of 13,239 yuan per kilogram [1] - Year-to-date, silver has experienced a cumulative increase of 90%, marking it as one of the strongest-performing commodities of the year [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The strong performance of silver is primarily driven by expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with the probability now exceeding 85%, up from around 40% a week prior [1] - This easing expectation has led to a weaker US dollar index, reducing the holding costs of silver and attracting significant capital inflows into the precious metals sector [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has faced a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, with an estimated shortfall of 95 million ounces [1] - High photovoltaic installation levels and increasing penetration of electric vehicles are expected to sustain industrial demand for silver in the long term [1] - Projections indicate that silver supply will continue to be in shortfall through 2026, providing strong support for silver prices [1]