11月PMI：反弹的底色

Core Viewpoint - The November manufacturing PMI shows a seasonal rebound post-holiday, but underlying signals indicate unusual trends that warrant deeper analysis [1]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - The November manufacturing PMI typically rises due to increased working days compared to October's holiday month, with an average increase of 0.17 percentage points from 2015 to 2024; this year, it increased by 0.2 percentage points, aligning with seasonal trends [1]. - The main drivers of the PMI increase are the new orders index and production index, with the former rising by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2% and the latter by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0% [3]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Although the production index has reached the neutral line, the demand side shows stronger improvement, with the new orders index reflecting seasonal growth while the production index remains weak; this divergence suggests that "anti-involution" policies are facilitating orderly adjustments on the supply side, potentially leading to a balanced supply-demand landscape [4]. Group 3: Price Indicators - Price indicators are sending positive signals, with the raw materials purchasing price index rising by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6% and the factory price index increasing by 0.7 percentage points to 48.2%, indicating potential for continued improvement in overall PPI growth; however, the greater improvement in upstream prices compared to downstream suggests that corporate profit margins may be narrowing [7]. Group 4: Export and Sector Performance - The November export sector showed significant improvement, with the new export orders index rising by 1.7 percentage points, driven by two main factors: a phase one trade agreement between China and the U.S. and the upcoming overseas Christmas order season [9]. - The construction PMI has risen by 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, marking the largest increase since June, reflecting the effectiveness of new policy financial tools; in contrast, the service sector PMI has decreased by 0.7 percentage points, indicating a need for stronger measures to enhance service consumption mechanisms [9].