美国关税改写铜市逻辑！大宗商品巨头惊呼：铜市“超级行情”来了

Core Viewpoint - Mercuria Energy Group's metal business head, Kostas Bintas, maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices, warning that the influx of copper shipments to the U.S. may lead to inventory depletion in other regions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent uncertainty regarding future tariff policies has prompted traders to increase copper exports to the U.S., targeting high copper premiums on the COMEX [1]. - The copper market has experienced volatility this year, with U.S. copper prices soaring after President Trump threatened tariffs, leading to a concentration of global copper resources in the U.S. [1][4]. - Despite a temporary exemption on refined copper tariffs, the potential for a reassessment in 2026 has kept market participants on edge [1]. Group 2: Price Predictions - Bintas suggests that LME copper prices, which are nearing historical peaks, still have room for upward movement, predicting further price increases due to tightening supply [2][4]. - Following Trump's tariff announcement in July, U.S. copper import growth has slowed, but Mercuria anticipates a resurgence in imports in the coming months, potentially nearing record levels in Q1 2026 [2]. Group 3: Supply Shortages - Bintas highlights that the ongoing supply disruptions from various mines could lead to significant copper supply gaps, echoing concerns raised by competitors like IXM and Gunvor Group [4]. - The market is increasingly recognizing that despite weak demand, the continuous flow of copper to the U.S. could result in shortages in China and other markets [4]. Group 4: Changing Buyer Dynamics - The role of the marginal buyer has shifted from China to the U.S., as American traders drive demand and push up premiums for copper deliverable on COMEX [5]. - Reports indicate that traders are willing to pay premiums exceeding $500 per ton over LME prices for Chilean copper, reflecting the changing dynamics in the market [5]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Bintas notes that the current high premiums are indicative of the market changes, suggesting that Asian buyers will eventually have to accept these elevated prices [7]. - The market is forming a "dual-track" structure, with LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange copper contracts relying on non-COMEX deliverable copper, and Shanghai prices will eventually need to respond to U.S. market changes [7].