流动性与科技双驱动的资本市场

Macro Economic Outlook - The domestic economy is expected to grow steadily at 4.9% in 2026, with infrastructure investment accelerating and manufacturing investment maintaining at 6% [1][6] - Consumer spending is anticipated to be supported by subsidy policies, while export growth may be driven by demand from the US due to its easing monetary policies [6][18] - CPI is projected to have a slight positive growth of 0.5%, while PPI's decline is expected to narrow to -0.9% [1][6] Global Environment - Short-term, US-China relations are entering a relatively stable phase, but long-term trends indicate a gradual decoupling in key sectors [1][18] - Global liquidity is expected to ease, with the Federal Reserve potentially initiating four rate cuts from late 2025 to 2026 [1][18] Asset Allocation Outlook for 2026 Bonds - The bond market is expected to focus on defensive strategies, with 10-year rates projected to fluctuate between 1.70% and 2.0%, and 30-year rates between 1.90% and 2.30% [2][21] - Short-duration high-quality credit bonds and medium-duration rate bonds are recommended for defensive positioning [2][21] Currency - The RMB is expected to appreciate gradually, potentially reaching around 6.80 by the end of 2026, with annualized volatility remaining low at 3.0%-4.0% [3][23] Commodities - The "green inflation" narrative is expected to benefit metals like copper and aluminum due to demand from AI and new energy sectors, with a long-term price increase anticipated [3][26][30] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy is expected to influence commodity markets significantly, particularly in sectors facing overcapacity [3][30] Gold - Gold prices are projected to maintain a range of $4000-$4200 per ounce until the end of 2025, with an upward trend expected post-2026 due to easing liquidity [3][32] A-shares - The A-share market is entering the next phase of an "innovation bull," driven by recovering inflation and improving corporate earnings, with a focus on technology and core manufacturing sectors [3][39][41] - The market is expected to see continued inflows from foreign, institutional, and individual investors, enhancing liquidity and supporting valuations [3][47][48] US Stocks - The US stock market is anticipated to reach new highs, benefiting from a favorable macro environment and AI industry narratives, although high valuations may increase volatility [4][18]