美联储降息预期持续升温，矿业ETF（561330）大涨超4%

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has significantly boosted the performance of the mining ETF (561330), which has increased over 90% year-to-date, with a recent surge of over 4% [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's dovish comments from multiple officials have led to a notable increase in rate cut expectations, rising from below 40% to over 80% [2]. - Recent economic data, including a lower-than-expected retail sales growth of 0.2% in September and a decrease in private sector jobs, supports the case for a rate cut [2]. Group 2: Mining Sector Performance - The mining sector has experienced a comprehensive rise, with spot gold reaching a two-week high of $4226.56 per ounce and silver hitting a historical record [2]. - The demand for industrial metals is expected to rise due to liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve and increased physical demand from A-shares, particularly for copper and aluminum [2]. Group 3: ETF Performance and Composition - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index by over 10% year-to-date, attributed to a more concentrated selection of leading stocks [3]. - The mining ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which has 37 components with the top ten stocks accounting for 56.34% of the index, compared to 47.62% for the CSI Nonferrous Index with 60 components [3]. Group 4: Sector Composition and Trends - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index has a higher proportion of gold, copper, and rare earths at 53.4%, compared to 49.8% in the CSI Nonferrous Index, indicating a stronger response to favorable market conditions [5]. - The supply constraints in the nonferrous mining industry are expected to drive prices higher, with copper and cobalt prices anticipated to continue rising due to supply tightness [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The mining ETF (561330) currently has a scale of 826 million yuan, ranking first among similar index ETFs, indicating superior liquidity and investment opportunities in gold, copper, and rare earths [11].