从强制生产到警惕过剩 泰国变了

Core Insights - Thailand's Board of Investment (BOI) has adjusted its electric vehicle (EV) incentive policy, allowing manufacturers to count 1.5 exported EVs towards local production obligations, aimed at boosting exports and preventing domestic oversupply [2][4] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new policy encourages automakers to increase exports while addressing potential oversupply in the domestic market [2][4] - Previous measures included tax reductions, price subsidies, and corporate income tax exemptions to attract significant investments from companies like BYD and Great Wall Motors [2][3] - The requirement for manufacturers to produce 1.5 EVs locally for every imported unit aims to build a robust local production system [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Chinese brands dominate the Thai EV market, holding over 70% market share, with significant contributions to the local electric vehicle transition [2][6] - In September, Thailand's pure electric vehicle deliveries reached 9,107 units, nearly doubling year-on-year, with total sales from January to September at 81,381 units, accounting for over 18% of new car sales [2][3] - The overall automotive market in Thailand is projected to decline by 26% in 2024, with total sales expected to be around 573,000 units, falling behind Indonesia and Malaysia [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The rapid growth of the EV market in Thailand is largely driven by Chinese automakers, with the top five selling models in September all from Chinese brands [6] - The policy changes present new opportunities for Chinese companies like BYD and Great Wall, allowing them to export more vehicles while meeting local production requirements [6] - Increased competition is anticipated as Japanese automakers accelerate their electrification efforts and Western brands like Tesla expand their presence in the Thai market [6]