供应危机与降息预期夹击，白银和伦铜双双创历史新高

Core Insights - Silver and copper are becoming the new focus in the commodity market, with prices reaching historical highs due to supply tightness and expectations of monetary policy easing [1][4][8] - On December 1, 2023, spot silver prices surpassed $57 per ounce for the first time, while silver futures hit $57.81 per ounce, driven by concerns over supply shortages and bets on an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - China's silver inventory has dropped to a seven-year low, directly linked to record export volumes in October, exacerbating global supply tightness [4][9] Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's silver exports exceeded 660 tons in October, marking a historical high, driven by cross-border tariff arbitrage activities that led to significant inventory depletion [9] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory fell to 715.875 tons as of November 24, 2023, the lowest level since July 2016, despite a slight recovery afterward [9] - Copper prices also surged, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) reaching $11,210.5 per ton, reflecting similar supply tightness and arbitrage activities [4][7] Monetary Policy Impact - The expectation of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve is providing strong support for silver and the broader precious metals market, as traders anticipate a rate cut in December [9][10] - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced market confidence in a low-interest-rate environment, benefiting non-yielding assets like silver [10] Industrial Metal Market Trends - The theme of supply tightness is also evident in the copper market, with predictions of a significant supply shortfall that could drive prices higher [11] - Analysts forecast that the copper supply gap may widen to 316,000 tons by next year, with average prices potentially rising to $9,900 per ton by 2026 [11] - Chilean copper producer Codelco is seeking to significantly increase its contract premiums, indicating rising costs and supply pressures in the market [12]