Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-01 02:37Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to experience a new round of growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on high-certainty segments such as battery cells, electrolytes, additives, and steel foils [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Battery cell prices have been continuously rising, with significant increases noted in various segments, including a rise in lithium iron phosphate battery prices by 6% and 3% in different quarters [1] - The market price for small battery cells has increased from approximately 0.33 yuan/Wh at the beginning of the year to over 0.4 yuan/Wh, with some urgent orders exceeding 0.45 yuan/Wh, marking a maximum increase of over 20% [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The price increase in battery cells is a necessary condition for the reasonable price rise of upstream materials, supported by strong demand and lower price sensitivity in overseas markets [2] - Various materials in the supply chain have seen significant price increases, with lithium hexafluorophosphate and other materials experiencing rises of 215% and 245%, respectively, due to differing supply and demand conditions [2] Group 3: Demand Drivers - The core driver of the current price increase is the strong demand for energy storage, with China's new energy vehicle sales reaching 11.23 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35% [3] - The energy storage sector has shown unexpected performance following policy changes, with domestic economic viability becoming apparent and overseas markets experiencing synchronized growth [3] Group 4: Production and Profitability - Continuous production increases and high capacity utilization rates have led to a recovery in profitability for leading companies, with battery cell production rising by 7% month-on-month in November [4] - The net profit margins for various materials, including battery cells and electrolytes, have shown positive month-on-month growth, indicating a stabilization in profitability [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The SW lithium battery index has risen by 44.8% year-to-date, with a notable increase of 47.7% since Q3 [5] - Recommended companies include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Tianci Materials, with a focus on segments with potential price increases and technological flexibility, such as lithium sulfide and iron phosphate materials [5]