大越商品指标早报——12月1日

Coking Coal - Supply remains tight despite gradual recovery from previous production cuts, with new reductions and suspensions impacting availability [2] - Current spot price is 1315, with a basis of 248, indicating a bullish sentiment [2] - Steel mill inventory stands at 8.01 million tons, port inventory at 2.95 million tons, and independent coking enterprises at 8.61 million tons, totaling 19.57 million tons, down 210,000 tons from last week [2] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [2] - Main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [2] - Anticipated weak demand in the traditional off-season, with steel prices declining and mills facing losses, leading to cautious procurement of raw coal [2] Coking Coke - Production enthusiasm among coking enterprises is high due to easing environmental controls and declining raw material coal prices, leading to expanded profits [3] - Current spot price is 1600, with a basis of 25.5, indicating a bullish sentiment [3] - Steel mill inventory is 6.26 million tons, port inventory at 1.87 million tons, and independent coking enterprises at 450,000 tons, totaling 8.58 million tons, down 10,000 tons from last week [3] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [3] - Main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [3] - Anticipated weak demand due to reduced procurement willingness from steel mills amid a traditional consumption off-season [3] Iron Ore - Steel production is decreasing, leading to a loose supply-demand balance and increasing port inventories [4] - Current spot price for PB powder is 837, with a basis of 43, indicating a bullish sentiment [4] - Port inventory stands at 159.01 million tons, showing an increase compared to previous periods [4] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [4] - Main positions are net long, with a decrease in long positions [4] Hot Rolled Coil - Both supply and demand are weakening, with continued inventory reduction and export challenges [5] - Current spot price is 3290, with a basis of -12, indicating a neutral sentiment [5] - National inventory across 33 major cities is 3.2288 million tons, down from previous weeks [5] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [5] - Main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions [5] Stainless Steel - Slight decline in spot prices, with stable costs and rising inventory levels [6] - Average price is 13275, with a basis of 920, indicating a bullish sentiment [6] - Futures warehouse receipts show a decrease of 354, indicating a neutral sentiment [6] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6] Rebar - Demand remains weak, with low inventory levels recovering and trade purchasing intentions still weak [6] - Current spot price is 3250, with a basis of 140, indicating a bullish sentiment [6] - National inventory across 35 major cities is 3.8475 million tons, down from previous weeks [6] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [6] - Main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions [6] Glass - Production profits are weak, with supply contraction not meeting expectations and high historical inventory levels [7] - Current spot price for float glass is 1004 yuan/ton, with a basis of -49, indicating a bearish sentiment [7] - National inventory stands at 6.2362 million weight boxes, slightly reduced from previous weeks [7] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7] PVC - Supply pressure is increasing with production rates rising, while demand remains low [8] - Current price is 4540, with a basis of -9, indicating a neutral sentiment [9] - Factory inventory is 322,640 tons, up 2.28% from previous weeks [9] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [10] - Main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions [11] Asphalt - Supply is increasing with production rates rising, while demand remains below historical averages [12] - Current price is 2990, with a basis of -13, indicating a neutral sentiment [13] - Social inventory is 774,000 tons, down 2.51% from previous weeks [13] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [14] Nickel - Recent price rebound with cautious purchasing from traders, while supply remains tight [44] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [44] - Main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions [44] Zinc - Global refined zinc production is short of demand, indicating a bullish sentiment [45] - Current price is 22460, with a basis of +35, indicating a neutral sentiment [46] - LME zinc inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased [46] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [47] Copper - Supply disruptions and marginal improvements in manufacturing PMI indicate a neutral sentiment [50] - Current price is 87360, with a basis of -70, indicating a neutral sentiment [51] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [52] Gold - Recent price increase driven by silver price surge and positive market sentiment [58] - Current price is 953.92, with a basis of -5.88, indicating a bearish sentiment [58] - Inventory levels increased, indicating a bearish trend [58] Silver - Significant price increase driven by supply shortages and positive market sentiment [59] - Current price is 12727, with a basis of -56, indicating a neutral sentiment [59] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [59]