Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-12-01 03:13Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 suggests a positive start for China's economy, with a focus on technological self-reliance and new productivity cultivation, supported by resilient external demand and domestic fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [3][5][6]. Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 4.8%, with expectations of a strong start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][7]. - Industrial growth is expected to remain stable, with a focus on high-tech industries and a supportive policy environment [7][8]. - The service sector is anticipated to benefit from improved industrial production and consumer spending recovery [8]. Consumption - The nominal growth rate of retail sales is expected to be 4.1% in 2026, driven by policies promoting consumption upgrades and the gradual lifting of restrictive measures [10][12]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy is likely to continue, focusing on sectors such as elderly care and health [12][13]. - The easing of restrictions in the automotive and housing sectors is expected to support consumer demand [13][15]. Investment - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 2.5% for 2026, with manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments expected to drive growth [17][18]. - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to grow by 6.5%, supported by large-scale equipment updates and favorable export conditions [18][19]. - Broad infrastructure investment is also expected to grow by 6.5%, driven by new policy financial tools and local government initiatives [21][22]. Trade and Exports - Export growth is projected at 4.7% for 2026, supported by global fiscal expansion and China's efforts to penetrate non-US markets [29][30]. - The trade surplus is expected to maintain a high level, with a growth rate of 13.1% [29][30]. - China's exports to non-US markets are likely to continue to grow, aided by investments and trade cycles [33][34].