石油ETF（561360）涨超1.7%，供需格局或支撑油价韧性

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict are expected to support oil prices, despite the lack of progress in negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine. The long-term trend of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may continue, impacting oil supply and demand dynamics [1]. Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects an increase in global oil demand by 770,000 barrels per day by 2026, while supply is expected to grow by 2.5 million barrels per day. This discrepancy highlights the need to monitor changes in demand expectations and their potential impact on oil prices [1]. - Major oil companies are adopting strategies focused on increasing production and reducing costs to manage oil price volatility. This approach emphasizes the resilience of their performance and significant long-term investment value [1]. Group 2: Refining and Chemical Sector - The recovery of the macroeconomic environment is boosting demand for chemical products. In the long term, the clearing of chemical production capacity is favorable for leading enterprises in the sector, with profitability in large-scale refining, coal chemical, and ethylene expected to improve [1]. Group 3: Oil and Gas Industry Index - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects publicly traded companies involved in oil and gas exploration, extraction, refining, and sales. This index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the oil and gas sector, characterized by high capital intensity and cyclical volatility [1].