Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-01 03:44Core Viewpoint - The capital market is focusing on precious metals, with significant price increases in silver and gold driven by global liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On November 28, international silver prices reached a historic high of $57.245 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 13% [1]. - London spot silver also surpassed $56.5 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 4% [1]. - COMEX gold futures rose above $4263 per ounce, while LME copper prices approached historical highs, indicating a broad rally in precious metals [1]. Group 2: Domestic Market Reaction - The A-share precious metals sector saw a broad increase on the following Monday, with Yintai Gold rising by 6.21% and other key stocks like Shengda Resources and Hunan Gold increasing by over 4% [3]. - The Shanghai silver futures contract opened with a 3.8% increase, reaching the 6500 yuan per kilogram mark, while the Shanghai gold futures contract rose by 1.2% to stabilize above 480 yuan per gram [3]. - The surge in international prices ignited domestic investor sentiment, leading to a doubling of trading volume in precious metal ETFs [3]. Group 3: Driving Factors - The primary driver of the recent surge in precious metals is the strengthened expectation of global liquidity easing, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in December rising from 65% to 82% [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions in the Middle East and supply chain concerns, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the price increases [4]. - The recovery in industrial demand, especially in solar energy and electric vehicles, is supporting silver prices, with predictions of a 15% increase in silver demand from the solar sector by 2025 [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Optimistic views, represented by Goldman Sachs, have raised the 12-month price targets for gold to $4500 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce, citing ongoing central bank gold purchases and declining real interest rates [5]. - Cautious perspectives from firms like Zhao Shang Securities warn of potential short-term volatility risks, suggesting that precious metal prices may have already priced in rate cut expectations [5]. - Investors are advised to consider diversifying through precious metal ETFs and funds, while long-term investors should focus on gold's asset allocation value and adjust silver holdings based on industrial demand data [5].