全球石油过剩加剧，OPEC+踩下增产急刹车！

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ countries have decided to maintain their production plans set in early November and will pause any production increases in the first quarter of 2026 to address global oil supply surplus and falling prices [1][3]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - Eight major OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to keep production levels unchanged from December 2025 through March 2026 [3][4]. - The required production levels for January, February, and March 2026 have been set for each member country, with Saudi Arabia maintaining a production level of 10,103 thousand barrels per day [4]. - OPEC+ has emphasized the importance of monitoring market conditions closely and maintaining flexibility in production adjustments to support market stability [5]. Group 2: Market Assessment and Future Projections - A new mechanism has been approved to assess the maximum sustainable production capacity of member countries, which will help determine production quotas starting in 2027 [5]. - OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais stated that the global oil market is expected to remain balanced in 2026, countering claims of oversupply [5]. - Morgan Stanley analysts have warned that oil prices could drop significantly by 2027 due to anticipated oversupply, with Brent crude potentially falling to around $30 per barrel [6][7]. Group 3: Price Forecasts and Market Dynamics - The oil market is projected to experience a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026, with supply growth outpacing demand growth by three times during this period [6]. - Goldman Sachs has indicated that oil prices are expected to decline until 2026 due to increased production, leading to a significant oversupply of approximately 2 million barrels per day [7]. - The average price forecast for Brent crude in 2026 is $56 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be $52 per barrel, both lower than current forward contract prices [7].