日本债汇遭抛售或触发全球债市风暴

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government plans to finance a new economic stimulus package through a significant increase in government bond issuance, raising concerns about the balance between economic stimulus and fiscal responsibility [1][4]. Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - The Japanese government intends to issue approximately 11.7 trillion yen (about 529.9 billion RMB) in new bonds to cover the funding gap from the recently announced economic measures [1]. - The total economic strategy amounts to about 21.3 trillion yen, with the supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 expected to include general account expenditures of around 18.3 trillion yen, marking a 27% increase from the previous year [2]. - The scale of the new bond issuance significantly exceeds the 6.7 trillion yen issued by the previous administration, indicating a high reliance on debt financing [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The Japanese yen and long-term government bonds have been subject to continued selling, with the yen stabilizing around 156 against the dollar and long-term bond yields rising [3]. - As of November 29, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to 1.814%, while 20-year and 30-year yields also increased, reflecting market concerns over fiscal deterioration [3]. - The rise in bond yields is attributed to investor demands for higher risk premiums due to expectations of increased bond supply and signals from the Bank of Japan regarding potential interest rate hikes [3]. Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - The current government faces challenges in balancing economic stimulus with fiscal discipline, as the debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 260% [5]. - The aging population in Japan exacerbates social security spending pressures, raising doubts about the sustainability of tax revenue growth [5]. - If the government continues to rely on debt issuance for economic stimulation, the trend of increasing debt could undermine market confidence in Japan's fiscal health [5]. Group 4: Potential Risks and Global Impact - There are concerns that the selling of Japanese assets may persist, with the potential for Japan's bond market to become a source of global risk [7]. - If the Bank of Japan delays interest rate hikes, it could further erode confidence in Japan's fiscal and monetary policies, leading to increased selling pressure on the yen and government bonds [6]. - The potential for a reversal in yen carry trades could impact global liquidity and emerging markets, as Japan is the largest creditor nation [7].