Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan Securities International maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price to HKD 40.9, reflecting an upward adjustment in earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 10.2%, 11.3%, and 12.6% to RMB 25.003 billion, RMB 25.378 billion, and RMB 25.946 billion respectively, driven by improved industry valuations and favorable aluminum market conditions [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, China Hongqiao reported a net profit growth of 23.1%, primarily due to rising electrolytic aluminum prices and decreasing electricity costs [1] - The company's revenue reached RMB 116.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with a gross margin expansion to 25.2%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average aluminum price in the third quarter was approximately RMB 20,700 per ton, up from about RMB 20,200 per ton in mid-2025 [1] - The company is expected to increase its production capacity in Yunnan Province to 2.16 million tons by the end of 2025, significantly up from approximately 1.74 million tons in mid-2025 [1] Shareholder Returns - China Hongqiao has demonstrated management confidence through active share buybacks, having repurchased 1.87 million shares for HKD 2.6 billion in the first half of 2025, and announced a new buyback plan of at least HKD 3 billion [2] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio above 45% over the past three years, with ratios of 46.8%, 47.0%, and 63.4%, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [2]
国泰君安证券国际：维持中国宏桥(01378)“买入”评级 目标价上调至40.9港元 公司持续受益于铝价上行行情