谁才是真正的大国？如今中国的实力不一样，美国的实力也不一样了

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade conflict between China and the United States in 2025 reflects a significant shift in global dynamics, with China no longer being the same nation it was in 2000 or 2008, and both countries' positions have evolved dramatically [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China has leveraged its strategic stability and market size to gain industrial advantages, while the U.S. relies on fiscal deficits and monetary manipulation to maintain its hegemony [3][4]. - The trade volume between China and ASEAN has grown from $40 billion in 2000 to nearly $1 trillion in 2024, showcasing China's strategic foresight in establishing trust through concessions [3][4]. - The U.S. has imposed tariffs exceeding 40% on smaller economies, demonstrating a punitive approach that contrasts with China's trust-building strategies [4][6]. Group 2: Currency and Payment Systems - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is gaining traction, with over 140 countries having China as their main trading partner, leading to a shift away from the U.S. dollar for trade settlements [4][6]. - China's CIPS payment system offers near-zero transaction fees and real-time processing, contrasting sharply with the SWIFT system, which incurs high fees and delays [4][6]. Group 3: Military and Strategic Calculations - The U.S. military acknowledges the growing disparity in military capabilities, with concerns about the potential consequences of conflict with China [6][7]. - China's military deterrence is now a factor in U.S. strategic calculations, indicating a shift in the balance of power [7]. Group 4: Future Predictions - The U.S. tariff strategy is unlikely to yield institutional benefits and may accelerate the fragmentation of global supply chains and the de-dollarization process [11]. - China is expected to further integrate its strategy of RMB, technology, and trade, thereby constraining the U.S. dollar's influence [11]. - ASEAN, RCEP, and Belt and Road Initiative countries are projected to be central to China's strategic growth over the next decade [11]. Group 5: Global Order Shift - The world is transitioning from a U.S.-dominated era to one characterized by China's contributions, with nations that have recognized and invested in China reaping early rewards [15].