白银年内暴涨近100%，铜价狂飙，美联储降息概率飙升至87%

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - Risk aversion has increased, leading to a rise in spot gold above $4220 and silver reaching a historic high of $57 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 98% [1][5] - COMEX silver prices have surpassed $58 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.47% [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver contracts have risen to 13520 yuan per kilogram, marking an increase of over 7% and continuing an 8-month upward trend [1][7] Group 2: Factors Influencing Silver Prices - The increase in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a persistent global supply shortage and heightened industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector [7] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is also contributing to the upward trend in precious metals [5][7] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the structural tightness in supply and low inventory levels provide strong price elasticity for silver [8] - The current economic environment, characterized by declining employment and rising inflation, is favorable for silver due to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal [9] - The silver-to-gold ratio indicates that silver is undervalued compared to historical averages, suggesting potential for price correction [9] Group 4: Investment Trends - There has been significant inflow of speculative funds into the silver market, with both institutional and individual investors actively participating [10] - The largest silver ETF, SLV, has seen an increase in holdings, indicating strong investor interest [11] - Sales of silver bars and coins have surged by over 40% year-on-year, reflecting heightened retail investment activity [11]