SIASUN(SZ:300024) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-12-01 06:47Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is at a crossroads, characterized by short-term hype and long-term potential being underestimated [1] - Morgan Stanley's report highlights that while order data appears strong, delivery uncertainties pose risks, and the true value of the industry will be tested through commercialization [1][2] Short-term Overheating: Reality Check Amid Order Surge - The Chinese market is expected to show remarkable growth by the second half of 2025, with announced orders exceeding 2 billion RMB (approximately 300 million USD) primarily from industrial, commercial services, and data center sectors [2] - However, many of these orders may not be fulfilled this year, with some being "framework orders" that have low execution certainty [2] Long-term Underestimation: A Grand Narrative of a $5 Trillion Market - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, the global humanoid robot market could reach a staggering 5 trillion USD, significantly surpassing the current automotive industry [4] - The report estimates that by 2050, the global humanoid robot stock will reach 1 billion units, with a cumulative deployment of approximately 237 million units by 2036 and 1.34 billion units by 2040 [5] Price Dynamics and Market Penetration - The initial price of humanoid robots in high-income countries is projected to be 200,000 USD, decreasing to around 50,000 USD by 2040, while prices in other markets are expected to drop from 50,000 USD to approximately 1,500 USD by 2050 [7] - The report emphasizes that as technology matures and costs decline, humanoid robots will first gain traction in commercial applications before entering households [7] Commercialization: From "Showcasing Technology" to "Calculating ROI" - The key to the industry's success lies in commercialization, with a shift from merely demonstrating advanced technology to proving value in real-world applications through ROI [8] - Software is identified as a critical differentiator, while the hardware supply chain has achieved over 90% domestic production, laying a foundation for commercialization [8] China's Ambition in Humanoid Robotics - The development of the humanoid robot market in China is strongly supported by policies and capital, with various funds totaling approximately 187 billion RMB established to support the industry [9][11] - The dual drive of "policy + capital" provides China with a unique advantage in the global humanoid robot competition, indicating a shift from technological exploration to commercialization [9] Notable Developments and Companies - Figure AI's Figure 02 robot has participated in the production of 30,000 cars at BMW's Spartanburg plant, installing over 90,000 components [10] - Booster Robotics has delivered over 700 humanoid robots to more than 200 clients across 20 countries since its establishment in August 2023 [10] - Ubtech anticipates its industrial humanoid robot production capacity will reach 5,000 units by 2026 [10]