年内涨幅飙升 95%！白银逆袭赶超黄金，登顶贵金属“涨势之王”

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant surge in 2025, outperforming gold with a year-to-date increase of over 95%, establishing itself as the leading precious metal [1][3]. Price Performance - Internationally, COMEX silver and London spot silver reached historical highs of $57.245 per ounce and $56.533 per ounce, respectively [1]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai silver futures contract surpassed 13,000 yuan per kilogram, peaking at 13,239 yuan per kilogram, marking its highest performance since listing [1]. Market Dynamics - The bullish trend in silver is attributed to three main factors: a shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve leading to increased investment in precious metal ETFs, a perceived valuation gap between silver and gold, and a significant drop in global silver inventories [4]. - The global silver supply has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with a projected deficit of 148.9 million ounces in 2024, narrowing to 117.7 million ounces in 2025, but still indicating a tight supply situation [5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Global silver supply is expected to remain stable or grow slightly, with a supply of 1.015 billion ounces in 2024, reflecting a mere 1.73% increase from 2023 [5]. - Industrial demand for silver is projected to reach 680 million ounces in 2024, continuing to be a key driver of demand [5]. Future Outlook - Market opinions on the long-term trajectory of silver prices are mixed. Some analysts suggest that further price increases will require additional catalysts, while others predict a sustained upward trend based on macroeconomic conditions [7]. - The ongoing supply constraints and high demand in industrial sectors are expected to provide strong support for silver prices, although short-term volatility may occur [6][7].