Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-01 07:14Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is experiencing a significant rise, driven by strong growth in passenger and cargo transport volumes in October, with expectations for a "super cycle" in Chinese aviation by 2026 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China National Aviation (601111) shares rose by 4.27%, reaching HKD 6.6 [1] - China Southern Airlines (600029) shares increased by 2.66%, reaching HKD 5.41 [1] - China Eastern Airlines (00670) shares grew by 2.18%, reaching HKD 4.69 [1] - Capital Airport (00694) shares rose by 1.43%, reaching HKD 2.84 [1] Group 2: Industry Data - In October, China's civil aviation transport scale showed strong growth, with a total transport turnover of 146 billion ton-kilometers [1] - Domestic routes transported 60.845 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [1] - International routes transported 6.99 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [1] - Both international passenger transport and cargo mail transport volumes grew by over 20% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Guotai Junan Securities, the reduction in passenger flow on Japan routes is leading airlines to shift focus, but the long-term logic of an aviation super cycle remains unchanged [1] - The overall performance of airlines is expected to achieve counter-cyclical growth in Q3 2025 despite weaker demand during the summer peak [1] - The industry is projected to significantly reduce losses in Q4 2025, with a full-year turnaround expected in 2025 [1] - The Chinese aviation sector is anticipated to enter a "super cycle," driven by market-driven ticket pricing, steady demand growth, and optimized passenger source structure, leading to an increase in profitability by 2026 [1]