Ge Long Hui·2025-12-01 07:21Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment for non-ferrous and precious metals is high, driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to significant price increases in gold, silver, and copper [2][10][16]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 1, the Hong Kong and A-share markets opened positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3900 points, particularly boosted by non-ferrous and precious metals [1]. - Spot gold prices briefly surpassed $4250 per ounce, while spot silver reached a historic high of $57.88 per ounce [3]. - The A-share precious metals sector has seen a nearly 76% increase year-to-date, following a week of consecutive gains [8][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The global financial market is experiencing a surge in optimism due to heightened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a probability of 87.4% for a 25 basis point cut in December [12][17]. - Market sentiment is further fueled by speculation regarding the potential appointment of Hassett as the new Fed chair, who is expected to advocate for aggressive rate cuts [13][15]. Group 3: Diverging Views on Gold - Despite the bullish sentiment, notable investors have expressed caution regarding gold, with some recommending selling positions. For instance, Hong Hao has sold all his gold holdings, citing a potential price bubble [20]. - Li Bei has also exited his gold positions, indicating that he believes the best phase for gold has passed and considers current prices overvalued [20]. - Fu Peng acknowledges structural risks for gold but maintains that it still holds value, viewing it as a "credit yardstick" amid increasing volatility [20].