避险与降息预期共振，贵金属市场全线飘红

Core Insights - The global precious metals market experienced a rally on December 1, with gold prices reaching a six-week high and silver prices hitting a historical record, driven by a weaker dollar and heightened risk aversion in the market [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold rose by 0.2% to $4240.54 per ounce, marking the highest level since October 21 [1] - December futures for gold increased by 0.5% to $4276.00 [1] - Silver prices surged by 2% to $57.48 per ounce, with an intraday peak of $57.86, a new all-time high [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in the dollar's value was a key factor in boosting precious metal prices, as it made gold and silver cheaper for investors holding other currencies [1] - Market sentiment showed a significant drop in risk appetite, with S&P futures down 0.8% and major cryptocurrencies also experiencing sell-offs [2] - The futures market indicates an 87% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which typically benefits non-yielding assets like gold [5] Group 3: Technical and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the short-term trajectory of precious metals will heavily depend on the upcoming U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data [6] - If the PCE data is moderate, it could reinforce rate cut expectations, providing upward momentum for gold prices [6] - Some analysts caution that current precious metal prices are relatively high, indicating potential profit-taking pressure [6] - A technical analyst noted that after breaking a key resistance level, gold's next target could be $4300 per ounce, though short-term volatility may increase [6]